Saturday, April 01, 2017

Economic Indicators (91)

To say I'm not an economist is putting it very mildly (I've got a economics 'O' level)  but figures that are being bandied around as Brexit begins to appear on the horizon tell us a lot if we look at them with a degree of precision.
To me London feels as though it's under economic siege too

Several points that we could consider :

1a) The Economy is doing better than Bre-moaners predicted

Part of the reason it seems is that what seems to  the usual engine of growth in the UK economy is running hard - it's fuelled by the lowest saving ratio since these records began in 1963 (and that includes disastrous experiments like those of 1970s Tory Chancellor Anthony Barber).

(So really what does this mean what should we do ?- Most cures for this/ways of keeping the economy active are inflationary)

1b) The Economy is doing better than Bre-moaners predicted

If we look at the pound since the decision to leave the UK was taken the pound has dropped  (between 15% and 12% against currencies of our main traders) economic growth can look better if we measure it with a 'devalued' currency. (This is inflationary too)

 2a)  Employment is holding up

Not only did Former PM in his determination to win the election tied up his government to restrict their ability to raise direct taxes ( with an ill considered VAT, Income Tax and NI promise) but he his then Chancellor (again it seems perhaps for Political rather than economic reasons) chose to create an escalating Basic 'Living Wage' that will potentially come home to roost.

(I do remember a Harold Wilson Quote 'Inflation is the mother and father of unemployment' Mrs T said something similar too.)

 2b)  Employment is holding up

Is the economy working well - what is UK productivity doing - this is for many the litmus test for a modern developed country and one which the UK has increasingly struggled with when measured against our competitors .

I'll be saying more on this I'm sure..
£118 20 so £120 soon


So at least 100 is looking possible

A little sign for Little Ealing Lane

A Double Album of 91s

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